Decision Friction Engine
Force System 2. Track calibration.
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My Decisions
Analytics
The Claim
Title
Claim statement (measurable outcome)
Category
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Work
Finance
Theology
Relationships
Health
Other
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Your Forecast
Probability this happens
?
50%
Coin flip
Confidence in this estimate
?
50%
Low — weak evidence
Assumptions
(minimum 3)
+ Add assumption
Reality Check
Base rate estimate (optional, 0–100%)
?
Why this base rate? (optional)
Failure modes / counterfactuals
(minimum 2)
?
+ Add failure mode
Incentives
?
Key stakeholders
Who benefits if you're wrong?
Pre-commitment
What evidence would change your mind?
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Decisions
All categories
Work
Finance
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Analytics
0
Total entries
0
Resolved
—
Avg Brier
?
0
Binary resolved
Calibration Chart
?
Calibration by Bin
?
Bin
Count
Avg forecast
Hit rate
Gap